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Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Week 12 in the NFL was all about favorites covering.
The Cowboys and 49ers both won and covered on Thanksgiving Thursday. Then the Dolphins followed suit in the first ever Black Friday NFL game. The trend of favorites covering then continued into Sunday. The Chiefs, Steelers, Titans, Jaguars, Broncos and Rams all decided to win and cover, too.
But here’s the real question — does this trend continue this week? I’m not counting on it.
To find out what I do predict will happen in Week 13, let’s jump into my early best bets for this week’s slate of games.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
If Mike Vrabel is a home underdog against a backup quarterback, that’s a wager I will always make. Vrabel’s Titans are 12-5 against the spread (ATS) as home underdogs (per FOX Sports Research).
The Colts are coming into town after a home win against the Bucs, where backup quarterback Garnder Minshew completed 24 of 41 passes for 251 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. That performance was above his season averages, and most weeks, he’s followed up a good performance with a poor one. And that’s why he’s a backup. He’s not consistent enough to be the starter.
The Colts’ rushing attack will face a Titans defense that ranks sixth in yards per rush this season. If Jonathan Taylor can’t get going, the Titans defense will do work on Minshew.
No, the Tennessee offense isn’t very good. Therefore, I have to rely on a low-scoring game with Titans quarterback Will Levis making enough plays to help his team cover the game.
I have faith in Vrabel as an underdog.
PICK: Titans (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Panthers fire Head Coach Frank Reich
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
I know there’s a popular theory that you wager on teams that just lost their head coach, but I think the…
Source link : https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2023-nfl-odds-best-week-13-predictions-including-jets-titans-to-cover
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Publish date : 2023-11-28 16:22:32
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