How Michigan football, Alabama match up according to advanced analytics services

Games aren’t played on paper, but if they were, Michigan football wouldn’t have to sweat playing Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinal in the Rose Bowl.

The Crimson Tide have won more national championships than any other team in history and Nick Saban is particularly formidable when it comes to winning in the postseason. But, with all the hype, how do the Wolverines matchup against the Tide on paper? It turns out, quite favorably.

Not just looking at stats but advanced analytics, Michigan football is the favorite in nearly every key metric over Alabama. We take a look at five services to see where the advantages lie for the maize and blue, and while the margins are slim according to most, the Wolverines do have some edges.

Parker Fleming, Stats-O-War

The independent statistician has Michigan football beating Alabama by the narrowest of margins, 25-24, with a win probability of 54.52%. The Wolverines rank higher in every metric other than RROE (rush rate over expected) on either side of the ball.

PFF

Unlike some of the other advanced analytics we’re looking at, which are more predictive in nature, PFF simply rates and grades what teams have done. In that light, the Wolverines are ranked higher than Alabama in every metric other than special teams.

Michigan

Alabama

Overall

1 (95.5)

2 (94.6)

Offense

8 (90.1)

11 (89.1)

Defense

1 (95.6)

2 (93.8)

Special Teams

22 (81.1)

3 (90.1)

ESPN SP+

SP+ is run by Bill Connelly and is predictive in nature. Per Connelly:

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/michigan-football-alabama-match-according-175105883.html

Author : Wolverines Wire

Publish date : 2023-12-15 17:51:05

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