2024 NFL Draft: History tells us trading up for a QB is dicey; why this is great news for the Bears

Since the 2016 NFL Draft, a team has traded up in (or into) the first round for a quarterback 14 times. Of those 14 quarterbacks drafted, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Texans-era Deshaun Watson and Lions-era Jared Goff are the only ones who can be considered a success, and there’s plenty of variation in this list – from “game-changing talent” to “good player who elevates those around him.”

I mention this because in the months leading up to the draft, particularly as the NFL season winds down and the bad teams jockey for the No. 1 overall pick, there is invariably some conversation about why it is imperative that an organization makes a move for a franchise quarterback. 

It’s an annual talking point. And annually, after a team does trade up for that franchise quarterback, we all reconvene to discuss why it was, in hindsight, a decision that could set that same organization back years, either because they drafted the wrong quarterback, or squandered valuable draft picks (or current players) or both.

But don’t let recent history get in the way of quick-fixing your favorite team. (Hey, I’m as guilty of it as anybody; it’s something both fans and front-office folks share: an aversion to losing, and if you’re in the front office, a willingness to abandon the three-year plan if there’s even the slightest chance of righting the franchise and saving your job.)

“Slightest chance” is the operative phrase above because NFL teams regularly talk themselves into overdrafting quarterbacks, and there is plenty of research that show teams overvalue first-round picks, in general. And when that first-rounder happens to be a quarterback, the most important position on the field, the price to trade up becomes even steeper. Put another way: really smart people can talk themselves into loving a prospect who may have plenty of warts, either on-field, off-field or both. 

In 2017, the Bears…

Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-draft-history-tells-us-trading-up-for-a-qb-is-dicey-why-this-is-great-news-for-the-bears/

Author : Ryan Wilson

Publish date : 2023-12-22 16:27:42

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