Talk the Line: Early NFL conference championship thoughts

Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week’s NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we’ve got you covered.

Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.

This week, we are down to two games, so let’s jump into their analysis for the conference championship round!

Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5)

Baltimore’s top-rated defense will be a massive step up in competition for Kansas City, a team that feasted on banged-up Miami and Buffalo. 

Then there’s Patrick Mahomes. There’s nobody scarier in the league to bet against, and his presence will keep this line around 3.

The “you have to take the points with Patrick Mahomes” narrative will be the storyline all week, but it’s telling this opened north of a field goal. 

The Chiefs found success against average defenses ranked 19th (Miami) and 12th (Buffalo) in DVOA, but now they step up in class to face the No. 1 defense in Baltimore. The Ravens permitted just one drive over 35 yards against the Texans. 

One big note that is too good to pass up: John Harbaugh is 1-4 against Andy Reid in the last five meetings.

Are the Chiefs peaking at the right time?

Lions @ 49ers (-7)

We have a little case of recency bias here. It feels like an overreaction to the Lions covering against Tampa Bay and the 49ers looking poor for three quarters before pulling out the victory late. 

The Lions defense has been torched in two playoff games (833 yards allowed!), outgained in both yards and yards per play. And now the Lions offense must leave the dome. 

If Deebo Samuel is a go, my guess is this spread closes at -7.5.

I’ve been waiting all postseason for this matchup: Detroit against a great team. 

San Francisco was shell shocked after Deebo Samuel’s first-quarter injury, but the Niners still found a way to beat Green…

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Publish date : 2024-01-22 23:10:57

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