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NFL teams have shifted their running back strategy in recent years. Teams are less interested in drafting them early — with rare exceptions — and most NFL offenses employ some kind of backfield platoon. The days of dominating your fantasy draft with a slew of early running back picks are long over.
But rookie production at this position has been fairly predictable and stable for a solid decade or so. I’ve spent a few days mining the last decade of rookie stats at this key spot, and the yearly hauls look remarkably similar.
[Venture into rookie fantasy history: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs]
In each of the past 10 seasons, there have been between 4-8 rookie backs who scored 100 fantasy points or more (scoring 100 fantasy points most seasons will land you inside the RB40 cutline, which is a rough proxy for holding fantasy value). There have been 55 backs in all who cleared this number.
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Here’s how that group of 55 stacks up by NFL draft round; the players who made the 100-point club as rookies:
1st round: 12 players
2nd round: 11 players
3rd round: 12 players
4th round: 9 players
5th round: 3 players
6th round: 1 player
7th round: 1 player
Undrafted: 6 players
This list isn’t dominated by early picks, but then again, there are more bites of the apple outside the first round. Let’s look at some recent rookie classes and see what common trends emerge.
2023: Four 100-point backs
I get that Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson could be frustrating as rookies — Gibbs had to share with David Montgomery, while Robinson had to live in the mercurial world of Arthur Smith — but they charted as the RB10 and RB12, respectively, by year’s end. That’s a hit, and they certainly seemed to justify the first-round draft capital their NFL clubs spent on them. They’re both fantasy first-rounders for 2024, justifiably.
Speed merchant De’Von Achane landed at RB21 despite a modest 130 touches. Tyjae Spears landed at RB39 and has a chance to be Tennessee’s…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy-football-history-lessons-learned-from-previous-rookie-rb-classes-to-apply-in-2024-194507955.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-06-06 19:45:07
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