Fantasy Football: No, kickers are not random

Brandon Aubrey was one of the best kickers in fantasy football last season. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

The war against kickers has reached a fever pitch in recent years, and I am not here for it. 4for4 has always been a safe space for those who play in leagues with kicker spots, a haven, if you will, for fantasy managers to appreciate how the position has the potential to be a difference-maker in their collective seasons.

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At the core of the notion of getting rid of kickers is the myth that their output is totally random and unpredictable. Sure, there are some who got blasted by a 21-point performance from Dustin Hopkins in Week 7 last year or rode Blake Grupe’s 17-point leg to victory in Week 12. When those weeks happen, it’s easy to blame it all on the “randomness” of the kicker spot, but very few take the time to research and see that it may not be so capricious at all.

This piece will break down the best way to tackle the kicker position divided by fantasy formats. FFPC still has the stones to use kickers in their best-ball leagues, and of course, there are plenty of redraft and seasonal leagues out there that are pro-kicker.

First and foremost, streaming is your best bet in redraft leagues, so the kicker that you click on or walk that sticker up to the board for, is of very little significance other than your possible Week 1 guy.

We don’t look to predict individual kicker components like field goal attempts, extra-point tries, or kick distances, as that would be somewhat futile. Instead, we turn to Las Vegas for kicker love in the form of team totals. The more points a team puts on the board, the more their kicker scores.

Kicker fantasy points per game vs. Team Total 2020-2023. (Chart by 4for4.com)

As you can see from the past four seasons, the correlation between higher team totals and larger kicker output is…


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Author : 4for4

Publish date : 2024-06-14 14:25:01

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