How would Oilers’ run compare to other great series comebacks?

Neil PaineJun 23, 2024, 09:55 AM ET

CloseNeil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.

A week and a half ago, hockey fans were wondering whether the 2024 Stanley Cup Final would end in a sweep for the first time since 1998. Now, we’re all wondering whether it will end with the ultimate comeback.

That’s how quickly the fortunes of the Edmonton Oilers rose — and those of the Florida Panthers fell — as Florida’s 3-0 series lead has evaporated heading into Monday’s Game 7 (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).

Connor McDavid has taken over the Final, with eight points (three goals, five assists) in Edmonton’s three consecutive wins. He has had plenty of help, from sources both expected (Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard have four points apiece in that span) and unexpected (so does Warren Foegele). Meanwhile, the Panthers’ key producers have been almost invisible — they have only two of the top 17 scorers in the series during Games 4-6 — and so has netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, whose .793 save percentage over the past three games is dwarfed by Oiler counterpart Stuart Skinner’s .942 mark.

All of this sets up a winner-takes-all finale in South Florida, a test of home-ice advantage and full-season résumé against momentum and peaking superstars. The Panthers remain slim favorites to win the Cup, despite their collapse.

But if the Oilers win, it would represent the first 3-0 comeback in the Stanley Cup Final since 1942, and the sixth in the history of the North American major men’s pro sports leagues (on top of winning Canada its first Cup since 1993.) And there’s a strong case to be made that Edmonton’s comeback would be the most impressive of the bunch.

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To judge the magnitude of each 3-0 or 3-1 comeback in the history of the NHL, NBA or MLB, we can begin by looking at the eventual winner’s series odds at the time of their greatest deficit according to the Elo Ratings, a measure of team strength that…

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Author : Neil Paine

Publish date : 2024-06-23 14:58:16

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