NFL history of the quarterback leap: Who made the jump in 2023, a look at every QB who has done it since 2000

The biggest question mark entering last year was Jordan Love. Would he continue the Packers’ run of MVP-caliber quarterbacks, settle in as an average starter or completely face plant. Sure enough, he took a leap to superstardom, culminating with a blowout win in Dallas in the postseason. Now he’s on the doorstep of a new contract that’ll surely pay him over $50 million per year. 

Love’s season is one of the greatest quarterback leaps in recent memory and also illustrates how fascinating and impactful the quarterback leap can be. Every year a few quarterbacks burst onto the scene or improve their play to a degree that can change the fortunes of a franchise (and their personal fortunes). 

As an NFL history buff and someone who loves to nerd out, I decided to find every quarterback leap since the turn of the century (2000) in search of the most common factors that linked the leaps together as we look ahead to another season of quarterback leaps in 2024.

Quarterback leap criteria:

There needs to be a statistical baseline. I started my search with quarterbacks who jumped at least a quarter of the league’s qualified passers from one season to the next in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play. EPA takes into account value added on all plays, from passes, sacks, scrambles and designed runs. It captures a quarterback’s entire impact better than a traditional stat like passer rating.I used the eye test to refine the list, adding and subtracting quarterbacks from there. Numbers were a great place to start but not the end all, be all. For example, there are quarterbacks who qualified for the passer leaderboard, but clearly didn’t have enough playing time for anyone to believe they made “the leap.” Traditionally, you might connect a quarterback leap to players in their first few seasons in the league. I looked at leaps of all flavors. I included Aaron Rodgers in 2020. He clearly took a step…


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Author : Douglas Clawson

Publish date : 2024-06-24 12:31:00

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