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Which schools have recruited well enough to emerge as national champion in the 2024 season? To determine this, it’s essential to understand the level of talent required to clinch college football’s biggest prize, according to recent standards.
I set out to answer this question over a decade ago by creating the Blue-Chip Ratio.
Since its inception in 2013, the Blue-Chip Ratio has been referenced by all major broadcast networks and closely monitored by head coaches and administrators. It is also being featured in the EA Sports College Football video game revival. Although it’s not the most complex calculation, it’s an excellent method for identifying the top 10% of teams that realistically have a shot at winning the title.
In simple terms: To win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA “Blue Chips”) than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.
This has been consistently true since the advent of modern internet recruiting rankings. But, this is not to say that the Blue-Chip Ratio guarantees a national title, or even competing for one.
The requirement to stack talent on top of talent makes sense when considering the violent nature of football. Even teams which stay relatively healthy need depth to survive the season. Teams who sign elite class after elite class have greater competition in practice and greater quality of depth.
Recruiting rankings are not perfect, but they are damn good, especially in the aggregate. Four- and five-star recruits are about 10 times more likely to be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft than their two- and three-star counterparts. And five-stars are about 33 times more likely to be All-Americans as two-stars. For…
Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/blue-chip-ratio-2024-these-16-college-football-teams-can-actually-win-the-national-championship/
Author : Bud Elliott
Publish date : 2024-06-25 16:00:11
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