What chance to ESPN’s FPI and SP+ give LSU vs. USC

Sep 23, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers Head Coach Brian Kelly reacts during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Clause-USA TODAY Sports

It’s game week at LSU. After a long summer, football is finally back. With the season’s return, so are weekly projections.

ESPN’s FPI and SP+ ratings always have some thoughts. So, what do the projections say about LSU’s season opener against USC?

According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, LSU has a 55.4% chance of securing the win. That’s about right given where LSU and USC sit in FPI.

The Tigers rank No. 12 with a 14.6 rating. USC isn’t far behind at No. 18 with an 11.1 rating.

SP+ has a more favorable outlook. Bill Connelly’s system has LSU winning 41-31. A 10-point win would cover the spread by a touchdown. That should send LSU fans home happy, especially given the anxiety from previous Game 1 losses.

As far as full-season projections go, FPI gives LSU a 4.3% chance of winning the SEC and a 26.1% shot at making the playoff.

Those playoff chances would be boosted win a win this weekend. USC is LSU’s strongest nonconference opponent. It would boost the resume and provide the Tigers with some room for error in conference play.

🥳🏈 WEEK 1 SP+ PICKS 🏈🥳

Dawgs 36, Clemson 20
Irish 29, A&M 27
Florida 30.1, Miami 29.8!
PSU 34, WVU 20
Colorado 34, NDSU 32
Okla St 38, SDSU 24
Mizzou 58, Murray St 1, lol
LSU 41, USC 31
FSU 36, BC 16

(Yes, Wk0 results taken into account)https://t.co/w7ALlZmjBl pic.twitter.com/kdsgr1mSlY

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) August 26, 2024

SP+ projecting a total of 72 points comes as no surprise. Both of these offenses excelled last year while the defenses were among the worst in their respective conferences.

[autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag] and Lincoln Riley both hired all-star defensive staffs hoping to bring some…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/chance-espns-fpi-sp-lsu-171740329.html

Author : LSU Tigers Wire

Publish date : 2024-08-27 17:17:40

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