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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. We’ll get better, more reliable data on how teams are attacking defenses as the season rolls on. For now, we have 2023 numbers and some educated guesses about how teams might operate according to their offseason moves.
This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
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Run Funnel Defenses
Bears vs. Colts
As the compiler of the Funnel Defense Report, I am legally obliged in 47 states to tout whoever is playing the Colts.
So I will do just that, but take no pleasure in it. The Colts are by far the most extreme run funnel defense, and were bludgeoned by the Malik Willis-led Packers just a week ago. Green Bay posted a 9 percent neutral pass script, something we haven’t seen since NFL players smoked cigarettes on the sidelines as part of their lung health regimen. Indianapolis’ defense has allowed the NFL’s third highest rush yards before contact per attempt — a key stat in identifying soft run defenses.
Anyway, the unspeakably bad Bears offense takes on this extraordinary run funnel in Week 3. Though D’Andre Swift…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-3-124855110.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-09-20 12:48:55
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