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Rachel Doerrie, ESPNSep 24, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
CloseRachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The NHL preseason is underway, and many teams have new faces. Last season saw astounding performances from quite a few players. A 69-goal performance from Auston Matthews, two players (Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov) reaching the 100-assist mark, 17 forwards hitting the 40-goal mark and five defensemen scoring at greater than a point-per-game pace. It is hardly bold to say we are unlikely to have a season like that in 2024-25.
Candidates for regression include those most likely to see a 10% drop in production (or more), be it goals or points, based on their situations according to my projections model. The biggest regression factor is shooting percentage; many players featured on this list shot well over their expected paces. While a few may not regress to their career average, it is likely they will regress towards their true talent and therefore, a dip in goal production would be expected.
Other factors include players expected to be in different situations, team environment and a change in expected matchups. Most of the players on the list have multiple factors contributing to their regression, and are certainly not the only players likely to experience a meaningful performance regression.
Here are a handful of the most high-profile regression candidates for 2024-25:
Matthews is here purely for one reason: the probability of scoring nearly 70 goals in any season are extraordinarily low, never mind in back-to-back seasons. Health is always a factor for the league’s premier sniper, as he has reached the 80-game plateau just twice in eight NHL seasons.
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Source link : https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/41400980/nhl-2024-25-stats-goals-scoring-regression-auston-matthews-zach-hyman
Author : Rachel Doerrie
Publish date : 2024-09-24 11:52:38
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