NFL News NFL News, Reports and UpdatesIdentifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
The data keeps piling up. We now have three weeks worth of numbers with which to play.
Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Geno Smith (SEA)
Geno is cooking in ways that are downright titillating to analytics geeks the world over. He’s third in completion rate over expected. He’s eighth in drop back success rate. He’s completed 87 percent of his throws between 0-9 yards — an area of the field that has proved critical to offensive success in the Age of the Checkdown.
Yet Geno has a grand total of three touchdown passes through three games. That’s good for a meager 2.9 percent TD rate. Even last year, in a down-bad Seattle offense, Geno had a 4 percent touchdown rate. In both 2021 and 2022, his threw a TD on 5.3 percent of his attempts. The Seahawks are running hot on rushing touchdowns despite being 13 percent over their expected drop back rate in the past two weeks. The Geno touchdowns are coming. The nerds are ready.
Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
Positing that something good will one day happen for this moribund Jacksonville offense makes me physically ill. The whole Jaguars offense was designed to fail; it is in no way a modern NFL system. It’s only a matter of time before everyone is fired.
Nevertheless, I persist in telling you that Lawrence has thrown a touchdown on just 2.1 percent of his attempts through Week 3. Only four quarterbacks have a lower TD rate (Matthew Stafford among them). 2.1 percent isn’t all that far below TLaw’s career TD rate (3.4 percent)…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/regression-files-week-4-140313511.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-09-24 14:03:13
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