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Fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski dives into the Week 3 breakout of 49ers WR Jauan Jennings to help guide our future lineup decisions. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)
Jauan Jennings wasn’t on anyone’s radar entering the fantasy football season. He was the presumed WR3 on a team with two superstar wideouts and a star tight end, and the 49ers also drafted another receiver in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Jennings received a modest contract extension because of his familiarity with the offense and his plus-blocking ability. There were no Jennings debates needed all summer.
But man, we need one now. Jennings forced the issue with his detonation game against the Rams, posting a monster 11-175-3 line at Los Angeles last Sunday.
Baseball stat legend Bill James pioneered a concept called Signature Significance. The crux is that although statisticians prefer large samples before they conclude anything with confidence, it’s possible in rare instances for a performance to be such a significant outlier that it can supersede the need to collect more evidence. If a no-name rookie pitcher throws a no-hitter with 16 strikeouts on some random Thursday, it’s likely that pitcher is a special talent. Ordinary players rarely are capable of such greatness, even accounting for randomness and variance.
So we ask — did Jennings reach a Signature Significance level with his amazing Week 3 performance?
The history of WR “boom” games
My first step in answering that question was to dig into the historical context. Jennings scored 46.5 points in full-point PPR leagues last week, which is the 37th-best WR score in the modern fantasy era (2000 to today; thanks to Pro-Football-Reference for the data). The other names on that list are a collection of superstars and very good players.
Jimmy Smith tops the list, a Hall of Very Good receiver. And you’ll find plenty of Hall of Famers (or likely future Hall of Famers) on this search: Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Terrell Owens, Julio Jones, Andre…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy-football-what-history-tells-us-about-how-to-process-jauan-jennings-moster-week-3-breakout-162346810.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-09-25 16:23:46
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