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Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
A lot goes into handicapping these NFL games. It’s a labor of love and an ever-evolving process.
Two weeks ago, I stumbled upon something that had worked in the past and appears to be back. And that’s giving long, hard looks at teams that did not cover the spread the week prior when they face teams that did cover the spread. Two weeks ago, those matchups went 7-2; last week, 4-1-1.
This week, there are five of them left after the Falcons came through on Thursday.
You don’t want to bet these games blindly, but for me, it’s a great jumping off point.
(All times ET)
Sunday, Oct. 6
Jets @ Vikings (9:30 a.m., NFL Network)
The Vikings are the surprise of the season so far, and if you’re backing them here, you’re doing so at the top of the market.
This game was Jets -2.5 last week. It’s a 5-point swing. Not through a key number, I know, but worth it because the Jets played like garbage in the rain and the Vikings were up 28-0 on the Packers.
This will be the best secondary Sam Darnold has faced, and he has five turnover-worthy plays so far (Will Levis has six, Aaron Rodgers zero). One would assume the Jets load up the box, dare Darnold to test the best secondary in the NFL and rattle the Vikes’ quarterback.
New York didn’t prepare well for Denver’s heavy blitzes last week, which is embarrassing since the Broncos blitz at the highest rate in the league at 44%. But it would be a fireable offense for OC Nathanial Hackett if he isn’t ready for Minnesota this week. Brian Flores has blitzed by far the most in the NFL this season (82).
As the media closes in and gushes over the Vikings, the Jets win this outright.
PICK: Jets (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright
Colts @ Jaguars (1 p.m., CBS)
Give me the winless Jaguars here at home to finally get a victory.
Besides the Buffalo embarrassment, the Jags have been in three games…
Source link : https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2024-nfl-week-5-best-bets-take-jets-jaguars-steelers-cover
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Publish date : 2024-10-04 20:41:23
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