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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. We’ll get better, more reliable data on how teams are attacking defenses as the season rolls on.
This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
The NFL’s lean toward ground-and-pound football this season has created quite the unique situation for this funnel defense-centric column. Going into Week 5, there are only five true pass funnel defenses: The Patriots, Lions, Ravens, Bucs, and Packers. Every other team is either a slight run funnel or an extreme run funnel. The run is being established at levels the zoomers have never seen.
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Pass Funnel Matchups
Bengals vs. Ravens
The aforementioned Baltimore defense is snuffing out opposing rushing attacks. Only six teams are allowing fewer yards before contact per rush and only four teams are giving up a lower rush EPA through Week 4. The Bengals don’t strike me as the sort of offense that will run into that kind of brick wall in Week 5.
The Bengals last week posted the ultra-rare Cincy game in which Joe Burrow and company were under their expected drop back rate. From Week…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-5-131447902.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-10-04 13:14:47
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