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The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: We need to downsize our expectations for two young WRs

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.

Harrison Jr. ranks 59th in receptions and 38th in red zone targets, but he’s tied for the second most touchdown catches in the league. He has fewer receptions than Michael Wilson and has been incredibly touchdown-dependent, with 35% of his fantasy scoring coming from TDs. The rookie has erased any early concerns with his speed, but his role has been shaky in an Arizona offense that’s taken a step back this season. Harrison Jr. is one of only two receivers who have seen go routes or fades on 30%+ of their targets.

Harrison Jr.’s 42.2% air yards share looks nice, but it’s come with a 60% catchable target rate that ranks 74th in the league. He’s among the league leaders in unrealized air yards while recording the second most contested catches. Among pass catchers with at least 25 targets, Harrison Jr. ranks 39th in designed target rate (5.9%). MHJ isn’t seeing any layup targets and hasn’t caught more than five balls in a game yet.

Harrison Jr. has averaged 8.4 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) when not facing the worst passing defense in the league (the Rams are allowing 9.0 YPA!), which would make him the WR46 on the year. Moreover, MHJ will likely be shadowed by Jaire Alexander (who returned to practice Wednesday) this week, and after that he doesn’t face a defense that currently ranks outside the top 10 in WR fantasy scoring allowed until Week 13!

Kyler Murray is averaging just 194.4 passing yards this season, and Arizona’s offense has been a disaster outside of opening drives; Murray has gotten 10.0 YPA with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio (and his lone rushing score) during attempts 1-10 this season, but that drops to a 5.3 YPA with 1:2 TD:INT ratio after the scripted…


Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/the-fantasy-football-numbers-do-lie-we-need-to-downsize-our-expectations-for-two-young-wrs-162155035.html

Author : Yahoo Sports

Publish date : 2024-10-10 16:21:55

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