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A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Geno Smith’s six TD passes are a lie
Smith easily leads the league in passing yards and attempts, but he’s tied for 19th in touchdowns. Smith ranks third in passes inside the five this season, and he’s somehow converted just two of 15 end-zone targets (fourth most) into scores. Smith’s 2.4% TD rate ranks 32 out 34 qualified quarterbacks, and this is someone who’s one year removed from leading the NFC in touchdown passes.
The Seahawks’ wide receivers have done Smith no favors this season, but that figures to regress along with his TD rate. Seattle ranks first in pass rate over expectation and neutral pass rate inside the 10-yard line. Smith gets an Atlanta defense with the league’s second-lowest pressure rate in a matchup with a 51-point total this week, so more touchdowns will start coming Sunday.
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DK Metcalf’s WR26 rank is a lie
Metcalf has been the WR26 in fantasy points per game this season, but he’s the WR5 in expected fantasy points. Metcalf was inches away from scoring three separate touchdowns last week, when he easily led the league in air yards. He ranks top five in targets and top 10 in air yards share on a team attempting by far the most passes in the NFL. Seattle leads the league in PROE and neutral pass rate inside the 10. Metcalf is seeing the most targets of his career, and Geno Smith is due for major touchdown regression.
DK Metcalf in Week 6:
-52-yard TD was nullified on an illegal shift penalty
-Toe was out of bounds on a potential 2-yard TD before halftime
-Arguable better ball away from a 49-yard TD earlier on that same drive…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy-football-numbers-do-lie-dk-metcalf-geno-smith-amari-cooper-trade-151209757.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-10-17 15:12:09
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