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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Ravens vs. Bucs
In the NFL’s (sad and unfortunate) two high safety era, it’s exceedingly rare we have two pass funnel defenses in the same game. When I was a kid, walking uphill in the snow to and from school every day, pass funnels squared off all the time. My kids will never know such glory.
We have to pass funnels in Week 7’s Tampa-Baltimore game. It’s a throwback matchup of sorts that could very well feature a lot of passing and therefore a lot of plays. We’re looking at a good fantasy environment here. The Ravens, with their opponents 2024 opponents sitting at 13 percent of their expected pass rate, are now the league’s most pronounced pass funnel. The Bucs’ opponents are tied for second highest pass rate over expected (9 percent) through Week 6.
It’s not just that both teams have exploitable secondaries. The Ravens and Bucs have been tough against the rush for much of the season. In yards before contact per rush — a key metric in quantifying how good or bad a defense is against the run — the Bucs rank tenth best and the Ravens third. Baltimore’s 27 percent rushing success rate allowed is by far the league’s best (Tampa ranks 17th).
All the usual…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-7-114150959.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-10-18 11:41:50
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