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A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
George Pickens’ one touchdown catch is a lie
Pickens has just one TD catch despite seeing the third most red-zone targets and the most inside the five-yard line this season. Pickens has the fourth-lowest percentage of fantasy points from touchdowns among the top 36 WRs. Pickens is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but he’s the WR13 in expected fantasy points. An increase in playing time and a change at quarterback will help him approach those expectations moving forward.
Pickens saw a season-high 93% route share last week, when he was also given a whopping 70% air yards share from Russell Wilson. His air yards per target were a season high, and he led all WRs in fantasy usage by a wide margin. Pickens got 2.40 YPRR, also drew the second most pass inference penalty yards in the league and saw two targets inside the five, which nearly doubled his previous season total (three). He’s earned 46% and 40% first-read target rates over the last two weeks and ranks sixth in ESPN’s Open Score this season.
Pickens was helped by a fortunate bounce and a Sauce Gardner injury last week, but it’s clear he’ll benefit from Wilson taking over. Fields has averaged just 184.3 passing yards this season, up from his career mark of 169.1. Wilson has averaged 232.4 pass yards in his career and has historically been among the league leaders in end-zone targets. Pittsburgh will remain run-heavy, but Pickens’ schedule goes from difficult to favorable. The Steelers have faced top-eight defenses in WR fantasy points allowed in four of their last six games but get bottom-eight opponents in six of seven games after their bye.
Pickens’ stats are misleading, as he has top-20 WR upside moving forward.
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Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/the-fantasy-football-numbers-do-lie-stats-say-george-pickens-week-7-breakout-was-the-real-deal-145432834.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-10-24 14:54:51
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