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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Packers vs. Jaguars
We could finally, at long last, get something of a high-volume passing outing for Jordan Love and the Packers, who have been run-first or balanced since Love’s return from injury.
Jacksonville is now the league’s most pronounced pass funnel defense. Jaguars opponents are both avoiding a rush defense allowing the seventh lowest yards before contact per rush and the third lowest rushing success rate, and attacking a generous secondary giving up the NFL’s highest drop back EPA. Every single one of the Jaguars’ 2024 opponents have been over their expected pass rate. Only four teams have faced a higher neutral pass rate in 2024.
The Packers, meanwhile, seem more comfortable leaning on Love two months after his opening day knee injury. They were 5 percent over their expected drop back rate last week against Houston, leading to a season-high 37 drop backs and 33 pass attempts.
Jacked-up pass volume will be a boon for Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Tucker Kraft — and possibly Christian Watson. Doubs, never a real target commander, is fresh off ten targets in Week 7 against Houston. I’d be skeptical of that kind of target distribution, but a pass-heavy…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-8-114714712.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-10-25 11:47:14
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