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This week we’re drilling down into some of the biases that could impact our ability to evaluate players involved in recent NFL trades. Just when your fantasy team was (is) at a point where you probably knew what you were and where you were headed, a real-life NFL trade can shake things up, giving you new life — or at the least, new hope.
When you roster a player who’s been traded, you’re susceptible to several potentially flawed reactions. The first is simply Novelty Bias. Old player + new situation = potential for greatness. We are drawn to the newness of things, and by we, I mean people, animals, insects — even bacteria exhibit a bias toward the unknown.
On top of novelty effects, we can also be misguided by Primacy and Recency biases. Primacy bias tells us that the first thing we learn about a player is the most important piece of information, while recency tells us that what he did most recently is the most important thing to base a decision upon. When these two forces are at odds, recency usually wins out.
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It gets really interesting when we have a veteran player, who, say, hasn’t been great this year moving to a new team. Does Novelty, combined with memories of previously great stats (Primacy) get us excited enough to start that guy who’s been consistently disappointing? What about the teammates left behind? They’re in a new situation now too.
Our goal is to make sense of the recent trades of Davante Adams, Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins, with a week or two of data in hand. The three situations are similar in that they all involve a (perceived) QB upgrade for the key player. However, the biggest fantasy impact might be on the guys on their former teams, stepping in to fill the vacated shoes.
Davante Adams to Jets (Fallout for Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers)
You have to go back to Adams’ second year in the league (2015) to find a season where he statistically did worse than 2024 on a per-game…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy-football-fact-or-fluke-now-that-dust-has-settled-from-3-big-wr-trades-whos-winning-154931492.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-10-29 15:49:31
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