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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comOct 29, 2024, 01:00 PM ET
CloseSean Allen is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He was the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hockey Writer of the Year. You can tweet him @seanard.
The goal on the power play is, of course, goals, and while PP tallies are a great driver of fantasy production for NHL players, goals earned may not be the best measure for future success.
Though it isn’t breaking any models, taking a look at previous season power-play units and their on-ice results does show a moderate correlation between shot attempts and goals on the advantage.
Thirty-eight groups of forwards played at least 50 total minutes of power-play time together last season and 30 five-player units played at least 50 total minutes together. I’m using both sets of data because they give slightly different looks and address the reality that some teams have defenders that rotate in the quarterback role.
When we consider just the 38 forward groups and drill down to their shot attempts metrics on a per-minute basis, there is a moderate correlation that is statistically significant between the shot attempts and goals.
Methodology
Before we go further, a couple of details: I’m using rate stats calculated at per two minutes. It makes sense, as that is the length of a minor penalty, and it makes them readable. So, for example, the league-leading forward group from the Florida Panthers last season (Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk) generated 5.16 shot attempts per two minutes (SAP2) on the power play.
Also, if you are really into this and you find a different calculation than you expect, note that I do something a little different than most other stat sources: I include goals and teammate-blocked shots in shot attempts. Why? This is a fantasy hockey stat universe here and I build these statistical looks from scratch, so we don’t have to worry about traditional methods like Corsi, which, for whatever reason, don’t…
Source link : https://www.espn.com/fantasy/hockey/story/_/id/42073893/nhl-fantasy-hockey-adds-drops-goalies-power-play-time
Author : Sean Allen
Publish date : 2024-10-29 17:55:03
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