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Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of this space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
Let’s get into it.
Positive Regression Candidates
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)
It doesn’t feel great to include as a positive regression candidate the quarterback who ranks fourth-worst in dropback success rate this season. But I must. The numbers leave me no choice.
Only six quarterbacks have more passing yards than Rodgers over the past four weeks in a Jets offense with a stunningly high 69% dropback rate over that stretch. The touchdowns haven’t been there for old A-Rod, however. He’s posted a humble touchdown rate of 3.2% since Week 4, going cold on his red-zone attempts in particular.
If the Jets remain a pass-first offense, Rodgers has a decent shot of benefiting from a touchdown bump in the coming weeks. He’s seeing a good number of high-leverage pass attempts; only Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy have more inside-the-20 throws than Rodgers through Week 8.
Geno Smith (SEA)
I’m sick of it, you’re sick of it, we’re all sick of it. But Geno remains in the positive regression column because man, this guy is gaining a lot of yards without many touchdowns.
To give you an idea of how incredibly cold Smith is running, he’s thrown one (1) touchdown every 282 yards over the past five games. His 2.6% touchdown rate is the third lowest in the NFL and well below his 4.5% rate over the past two seasons. Passing yardage has accounted for 75% of Seattle’s total yardage through Week 8, and the Seahawks’ 9.2% pass rate over expected leads the NFL by a wide margin.
I don’t think Smith…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/regression-files-week-9-baker-134218203.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-10-29 13:42:18
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