The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Josh Downs’ play this year far exceeds his stat line

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.

Josh Downs’ 58.5 receiving yards per game are a lie

Downs ranks 32nd in receiving yards per game, but he gets a major fantasy boost with the Colts switching to Joe Flacco. Downs ranks first in catchable targets per game (9.0) and fourth in yards per route run with Flacco this season. He’s also been fantasy’s WR5.

Downs is a legit route runner who’s also a Reception Perception favorite. He ranks 13th in ESPN’s Open Score despite returning from a high-ankle sprain earlier this season. Indy receivers are about to see improved intermediate accuracy and increased volume; the Colts have averaged 17 more passes during games Flacco has started this season. He gets a pass-funnel Vikings defense this week that’s allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year and 12 TD passes over the last four games. Downs missed Wednesday’s practice, but it was likely a rest day after he was able to play through his toe injury last week.

I have Downs as a top-15 WR this week.

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Baker Mayfield’s 21 touchdown passes are a lie

Mayfield has been fantastic this season, and he leads the league by four TD passes. But regression is coming, especially with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. Mayfield’s 7.4% TD rate is a hair off the league lead and well above his career mark of 4.9%. He’s unquestionably benefitting from throwing frequently inside the 10, but he’s also running incredibly hot; Mayfield’s attempted just five more red zone passes than Matthew Stafford, who has 14 fewer TD passes. Tampa Bay has scored a touchdown on 68% of its red-zone opportunities this…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/the-fantasy-football-numbers-do-lie-josh-downs-play-this-year-far-exceeds-his-stat-line-145307413.html

Author : Yahoo Sports

Publish date : 2024-10-31 14:53:07

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