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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
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Pass Funnel Defense Matchups
Broncos vs. Ravens
Bo Nix haters, of whom there are many, might be in for another rough Sunday in Week 9 as the man with 50,000 college snaps takes on the league’s most extreme pass funnel defense.
The pass-funnel Ravens in Week 8 saw the Browns operate at 5 percent above their expected drop back rate. The Bills, all the way back in Week 4, remain the only team to be below their expected pass rate against Baltimore (and just barely, at -1.5 percent).
The Broncos, meanwhile, are slowly morphing into a reliably pass-first offense. Sean Payton’s guys actually lead the NFL in pass rate over expected (+7 percent) over the past three weeks. The Broncos even went pass heavy against the run funnel Panthers in Week 8. This little trend has created nice, if unexpected, pass volume for Nix and the team’s pass catchers.
Only five quarterbacks have more drop backs than Nix over the past three weeks; that’s a pretty big deal for a QB who scrambles as much as Nix does. The rookie…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-9-124804333.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-11-01 12:48:04
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