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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Jets vs. Cardinals
Arizona has done that weird thing where a defense goes from a slight run funnel to a borderline extreme pass funnel, all in the matter of about a month. Cards opponents over the past four games are 6 percent over their expected pass rate; even balanced offenses are leaning hard on the pass against an Arizona defense giving up the league’s tenth highest completion rate over expected and the highest drop back success rate.
This should match well with what the Jets have decided to do on offense over the past six weeks. Aaron Rodgers and company are 5 percent above their expected drop backs rate since Week 4, and on the season, only the Bengals, Seahawks, and Bucs have a higher pass rate over expected. Teams facing the Cardinals over the past month have passed the ball at a league-high 64 percent neutral rate.
Rodgers should be able to slice and dice the toothless Arizona secondary this week. The Cardinals pressure the passer at the NFL’s fifth lowest rate and give up the league’s fourth highest EPA per drop back. Look for another pass-first game plan for the Jets — barring, as usual, weird game script — that could fuel opportunity and production for…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-10-131435685.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-11-08 13:14:35
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