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Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of this space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (LAC)
Herbert got away with it in Week 10 against the Titans. A first half rushing score for a few yards out saved an otherwise forgettable fantasy outing for Herbert, as Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman went back to his mega run-heavy roots. LA, after being among the pass heaviest offenses in the NFL over the previous three weeks, were 8 percent below their expected pass rate against the Titans — the third run heaviest game of their 2024 season.
Herbert’s nine rushes against Tennessee were nice, though we can’t bank on quarterback rushing from week to week. It was only the second time in 2024 that Herbet had exceeded five rushes in a game. What we can bank on is the Regression Reaper (the good kind in this case). Herbert since Week 6 has the NFL’s fourth most passing yards on the eight most drop backs. He has a humble 3.8 percent touchdown rate (6 TDs) over that five-game stretch, and a Week 11 date coming up against a gettable Bengals defense.
Despite the run-heavy approach in Week 10, the Bolts have the third highest neutral first down pass rate since Week 6, trailing only the Browns and Bengals. That indicates Roman and company are ready and willing to establish the pass when necessary. That’ll likely be the case this week against a Bengals defense giving up the NFL’s sixth highest EPA per drop back. For the first time in living memory, Herbert might be a locked-in QB1 in Week 11.
Running Back
Josh…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/regression-files-week-11-justin-145908260.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-11-12 14:59:08
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