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A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Calvin Ridley’s WR36 rank is a lie
Ridley has averaged 10.7 targets, 6.7 catches and 100.0 receiving yards while scoring two touchdowns over three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. He’s been fantasy’s WR5 in points per game over that span. Ridley sports a 32% TPRR (targets per route run), 3.03 YPRR and a 41% first-read target rate since Hopkins left, which are WR1 numbers.
It’s a small sample, but it’s also encouraging Ridley maintained production after Will Levis returned last week. Moreover, Ridley has the third easiest remaining schedule for wide receivers after having the league’s toughest until now.
Ridley’s impressive rates will regress some, and this is still an offense with a lowly 16.75-point implied total this week (when Levis may struggle versus Minnesota’s blitzing). But Ridley’s usage with Hopkins gone has been undeniable, and he suddenly looks like a top-20 WR down the stretch (even if some duds are sprinkled in).
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Justin Herbert’s QB21 rank is a lie
Herbert has been fantasy’s QB21 in points per game, but he’s been the QB9 over the last four weeks. He’s getting a career-high 7.8 YPA with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio, but volume has been a problem for his fantasy production. The Chargers rank 25th in pass plays per game. Los Angeles has allowed just 13.1 points per game, which would be top 15 in NFL history if the season ended. The Chargers’ red-zone defense (38.9%) is likely to regress.
Moreover, L.A.’s favorable schedule has been loaded with low projected totals, but the Chargers’ upcoming matchups should feature many more shootouts….
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/the-fantasy-football-numbers-do-lie-dont-let-justin-herberts-qb21-rank-fool-you-154254432.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-11-14 15:42:54
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