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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Browns vs. Saints
I was skeptical in last week’s Funnel Defense Report of the Saints as an unquestioned pass funnel. And hey, look at that: I was right. The Falcons were 9 percent below their expected drop back rate against New Orleans.
I’m here to tell you what the spreadsheets tell me, and those stubborn little sheets still insist the Saints are a pass funnel. In fact, only three defenses are more extreme pass funnels on the season. There might be an easy explanation for why the Falcons went heavy on the run in Week 10 against the Saints. Atlanta has shown at every turn this season that they want to be a run-first team, with Kirk Cousins as a game-managing point guard. The Falcons have been above their expected pass rate just twice in 2024. So it goes.
Enter the Browns, with a drop back rate of 71 percent (5 percent over expected) since Jameis Winston took over for Deshaun Watson. Cleveland has the league’s fourth highest early down neutral pass rate over that stretch and has largely abandoned the run when trailing. It all sets up well for a bunch of Winston drop backs in Week 11.
Another pass-heavy outing should make us bullish on Cedric Tillman — Winston’s…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-11-134917513.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-11-15 13:49:17
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