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When players bounce around between really good production and really bad production, it leaves us with a tricky puzzle to solve in our fantasy football leagues. On one hand, every skill player in the NFL has the potential to go off at any time, in any matchup. We can use the data available in terms of defensive matchup and utilization to make our best guesses as to who that will be each week, but we’ll never be perfect with our predictions. Take Russell Wilson for example. In the actual best QB matchup on paper with the Ravens, coming off three reasonably good to great games, he was an obvious fantasy start. Yikes, did that not work out!
On the other hand, we know that some players are simply more talented and/or surrounded by more talent than others, making their good outcomes more likely. Those are the guys we don’t need to microanalyze because you’re starting them regardless of whether their most recent stat line was a dud (see one exception below).
I’m going to be focusing on some of the big disparities in performance from Week 10 to Week 11 coming from fringe starters. These are players you consider starting due to byes or injuries but aren’t performing like every week must-starts. Do we buy their big Week 11 outburst of fantasy points? Or will they return to fantasy irrelevance?
We’re more likely to chase good performances from fringe players than we are to actively avoid bad ones. Breaking down the source of the improved fantasy stat line can help us decide whether it was simply a fluke or whether it contributes to growing evidence that trust is in order.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
While the 9-1 Lions have been consistent as a team, thanks in part to their surprisingly good defense this season, Goff has been a roller coaster of a fantasy asset. After a slow start, he put up massive totals in Weeks 4 and 6, only to enter a slow decline that bottomed out with a 240-yard, 5-interception performance vs. Houston in Week 10. Even in Week 8, when the…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy-football-fact-or-fluke-what-to-make-of-anthony-richardons-bounce-back-week-153622408.html
Author : Yahoo Sports
Publish date : 2024-11-19 15:36:00
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