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Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of this space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels (WAS)
The days of Daniels being locked in for double digit rushes are long gone (for now). The rookie is clearly dinged up and under strict instructions to preserve his health as the Commanders continue their unlikely run toward the postseason. So it goes.
Daniels’ lack of rushing and his sudden shortage of passing scores has left Daniels drafters wondering if they can continue starting him in 12-team leagues. I think it’s a fair question. It’s one I’m grappling with in a couple leagues. In Week 11, I did not have the courage to do the right thing and play Jameis Winston over Daniels.
Daniels over the season’s first seven weeks logged a rush on 33 percent of his drop backs over the season’s first month. That rate has fallen to 16 percent over his past three games. Daniels is clearly not healthy. Until he is, I suspect we’re going to get more of the latter and not the former.
Then there’s Daniel’s passing touchdown production. Headed into Week 12, he has a humble 3.4 percent touchdown rate, 26th among 34 qualifying QBs. He has just four touchdown passes over his past four complete games, and his adjusted yards per attempt has plummeted to below 5 in each of his past two outings. Daniels is suddenly taking a lot of sacks — six over the past two weeks — after largely avoiding sacks in the season’s first two months (outside of a five-sack performance in Week 2). In every way, Daniels is…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/regression-files-week-12-taysom-135736546.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-11-19 13:57:00
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