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Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
It’s our favorite time of year, folks. We’ve officially entered one of the best parts of the NFL season where we’ve got football, turkey and then more football.
Gotta love it.
With that in mind, I’m wagering on a few games on the schedule that span from Thanksgiving Thursday to Monday Night Football.
Let’s dive into my best bets for a stacked NFL Week 13.
(All times ET)
THURSDAY, NOV. 28
Dolphins @ Packers (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Are you aware that the Green Bay Packers are 8-3 and have the third-best record in the NFC?
They also rank sixth in overall DVOA, meaning they are the sixth-most efficient team in all the NFL. The Packers rank third on offense and 11th on defense.
They are legitimately a good NFL team.
It is fair to mention that they do have close wins against some bad competition, but they blew out the 49ers, beat the Cardinals and beat the Texans. Green Bay is now on a short week, playing at home, with weather on its side.
Yes, Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovalioa is bad in the cold weather. And in Green Bay, the temperature will be around freezing or colder. But that is not why I’m picking the Packers to cover here.
The Dolphins have played an easy schedule and this is a level up in competition on a short week and on the road. They have beaten the Patriots, Raiders and won in Los Angeles against the Rams. However, the Packers are a different beast. Their ability to pressure and find unique ways to blitz quarterbacks will get after Tagovailoa, who will be looking to throw the ball quickly.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins run defense is suspect and against the Packers, that’s less than ideal. Run defenses project worse in shorter weeks when they have less time to heal and less time to prepare for a run game.
I like the Packers run game to handle business on Thursday night.
PICK: Packers (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Herd…
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Publish date : 2024-11-27 15:36:00
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