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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Raiders vs. Bucs
We get a rare treat in an era of boring, run-first, check-down, EPA-driven NFL football: A matchup between two tried-and-true pass funnel defenses. The Bucs, entering Week 14, are the league’s third most extreme pass funnel; the Raiders are fourth.
Ten of 12 teams to face Vegas this season have been over their expected pass rate, with the past five teams to play the Raiders going at least 8 percent over. That’s a lot, per my spreadsheets. Meanwhile, Tampa opponents have gone over their expected pass rate in nine of 12 games. The Bucs in 2024 have faced a 64 percent neutral pass rate, by far the highest in the NFL.
There should be plenty of dropping back in this game, which has a 46-point Vegas total, two points higher than it was on Monday. Both Baker Mayfield and Aidan O’Connell should have plenty of time to operate in the pocket this week: The Raiders sport one of the NFL’s lowest pressure rates and the Bucs’ pass rush is middling at best. Both QBs have a fantastic chance to pick apart the opposing defense too. The Bucs give up the league’s highest drop back success rate, and the Raiders, with the ninth highest rate, aren’t too far behind.
A…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-14-123554846.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-12-06 12:35:00
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