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This offseason Josh Allen was voted the most overrated quarterback in an ESPN survey of over 100 NFL players. That seemed like an overreaction at the time, and probably served as bulletin-board material as a lot has changed in a few months.
We’ve gone from Allen fatigue (after an NFL-high 102 turnovers from 2018-23) to Allen MVP fever as he leads the NFL in MVP odds (-270) ahead of Saquon Barkley (+450) at FanDuel.
The transformation starts with this. No quarterback has seen a more drastic shift in avoiding turnovers than Allen, who is playing the most efficient (or “clean”) football of his career. His turnover rate has dropped from 3.1% of plays in 2023 to 1.6% this season, the biggest improvement in the league (-1.5% drop). He had 22 giveaways last year, second-most in the NFL and has just seven so far in 2024.
Despite Allen’s historic one-man band effort on Sunday vs. the 49ers (he became the first quarterback ever with a pass, rush and receiving touchdown in the same game) he’s actually doing less than he ever has. Which is a good thing.
He’s averaging the lowest turnover rate (1.6%) and sack rate (3.5%) of his career. He’s averaging the fewest dropbacks per game (33.3) since his rookie year and the fewest rush attempts (5.8) per game in his seven-year career.
He has the lowest negative play rate of any passer with 10+ starts this season. Only 5.2% of his plays are resulting in a sack, fumble or interception. In this case, less is more, especially because he is still doing damage, posting his highest explosive pass rate since 2019 (17% of his passes are gaining 20+ yards).
It all adds to probably the best version of Allen we’ve ever seen. He’s averaging by far the highest EPA per play (0.22) of his career.
