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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Cowboys vs. Bucs
You, a regular Funnel Defense Report reader, are stunned beyond description to see the Tampa Bay Bucs featured in this space. It’s been a whole week since you’ve read about what an extreme pass funnel the Bucs defense has been in 2024. Not much has changed over that week.
Tampa is now the NFL’s most pronounced pass funnel defense after the Chargers went 13 percent over their expected pass rate against the Bucs in Week 15. The Bolts on the season are less than 1 percent over their expected pass rate. Only three teams all season have been below their expected pass rate against the Bucs. Tampa opponents are passing the ball at a league-high 63 percent clip in neutral situations (when the score is within seven points either way).
It all points to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys being at least somewhat pass heavy in Week 16 against the Pewter Pirates. The Rush-led Dallas offense has been relatively balanced in neutral game scripts, with a middle-of-the-road 60 percent pass rate in such situations. It’s been good news for CeeDee Lamb that the Cowboys have not turtled into a hugely run-heavy scheme because they’re terrified of Rush making a mistake or three….
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-16-125405470.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-12-20 12:54:00
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