Updated ESPN FPI has Oregon Ducks among biggest longshots to win national championship

Throughout the entire 2024 college football season, teams across the nation have been competing to get themselves into a position to compete for the national championship.

This past week, we saw eight of the top 12 teams in the nation — those who rightfully earned a spot in the College Football Playoff — compete to advance to the next round and keep their championship hopes alive.

The Ohio State Buckeyes, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Texas Longhorns, and Penn State Nittany Lions were successful in this venture, and they will now go on to join the Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, Boise State Broncos, and Arizona State Sun Devils in the quarterfinals.

Of the eight teams remaining, who has the best chance to make it to the national championship game, and ultimately win the first-ever 12-team playoff?

As we’ve done all year long, let’s take a look at the ESPN Football Power Index. For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.

Here’s a look at the latest probabilities for the CFP, according to ESPN.

Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook

Oregon vs. Ohio State Win Probability

Oregon Ducks: 46.4%

Ohio State Buckeyes: 53.6%

Percent Chance to Make National Championship:

Texas Longhorns — 47.0%

Notre Dame Fighting Irish— 37.7%

Ohio State Buckeyes — 29.9%

Penn State Nittany Lions — 28.4%

Georgia Bulldogs — 27.1%

Oregon Ducks— 18.0%

Boise State Broncos — 6.7%

Arizona State Sun Devils —5.1%

Percent Chance to Win National…