Regression Files Week 17: Is Deebo back?

Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of this space over the 2024 NFL season.

Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.

Positive Regression Candidates

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

Tagovailoa, in a Miami offense with the league’s fourth highest pass rate over expected since Week 11, has run pretty dang cold on touchdowns of late. While piling up the fourth most passing yards since Week 13, Tua has just six touchdown passes, for a TD rate of 3.5 percent.

His season-long rate is 4.8 percent, and since Mike McDaniel took over as Dolphins head coach, Tua has thrown a touchdown on 5.6 percent of his attempts. The yards are there; the Regression Reaper might not be far behind.

Miami’s penchant for establishing the run in the red zone could be the culprit here. McDaniel force feeds his running backs — particularly De’Von Achane — anytime the team sniffs the end zone paint. But Tua has been excellent inside the 20 this season; no quarterback has a higher completion rate (72 percent) in the red zone, and only five QBs have been more accurate inside the ten yard line.

Though Tua’s hardly in a great spot this week, taking on the Browns in Cleveland with a Vegas total of just 40 points, he could be on the right side of regression against a defense giving up the NFL’s tenth highest drop back EPA since Week 10.

Wide Receiver

Hollywood Brown (KC)

Personally I love to tout a guy who just played 20 of his team’s 74 offensive snaps. It’s great. You should try it sometime.

That’s what we have with Brown after his 2024 season debut last week against the Texans. With Andy Reid and the Chiefs easing…

Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/regression-files-week-17-deebo-130848537.html

Author : NBC Sports

Publish date : 2024-12-24 13:08:00

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