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The betting odds might have been way, way off.
And so, naturally, the odds are shifting.
Entering Week 16, Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the runaway favorite for MVP, at -900 on DraftKings. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was at +550.
After Week 16, Allen moved to -500 and Lamar shrank to +370. After Lamar’s stellar performance in Houston on Christmas Day, it’s now Allen at 240 and Jackson at +180.
It’s likely that neither candidate will have another high-profile game in the final two weekends of the season. The Bills play the Jets and Patriots; the Week 18 trip to New England doesn’t seem to be destined for a flex to prime time. Browns-Ravens could end up at 4:25 p.m. ET next Sunday, with Bengals-Steelers being played simultaneously and the division title hinging on the outcome of the two games.
(The Ravens are in with a win. If the Ravens lose and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh will be the division champion.)
Even if Lamar runs rings around the Browns in the late-afternoon window next weekend, that might do enough to even out the odds. As explained earlier this week, it shouldn’t matter.
The odds are a reflection of the money being wagered. Bettors are making guesses about who the MVP will be. The net result of those guesses, as reflected by the odds the sports books are using to lure more action, is irrelevant to the voting.
The problem is that some voters might break the tie between Allen and Jackson by going with the guy who is the betting favorite. (I won’t. Others might.) And that’s another example of how the bet-bet-bet explosion in gambling can warp reality.
Actually, some voters might be inclined to defy the betting odds as a statement against the infiltration and proliferation of all things betting. As if people can’t enjoy watching a football game without having action on this prop or that spread or the other thingamajig.
It’s wrong to assume it will be Allen. It’s also wrong to narrow it to Allen and Jackson. The quarterback of the eventual top seed in the…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/josh-allen-lamar-jackson-mvp-142957022.html
Author : ProFootball Talk on NBC Sports
Publish date : 2024-12-26 14:29:00
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