One team looms as the most dangerous threat in the AFC wild-card race. Fortunately for the four division leaders, the Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff hopes are slim with two games left in the 2024 regular season.
They need to win out — which would include beating the Broncos in Cincinnati in Week 17, then have Denver lose in Week 18 while hosting a likely resting Chiefs team. Also, they’ll need the Colts and Dolphins to each lose one of their final two contests.
If all that happens, the Bengals are in the playoffs as the No. 7 seed, and they have the characteristics to spring an upset in the opening round, and maybe even go on an Eli Manning-like Giants run toward a Super Bowl.
And this isn’t pure speculation or feel — the theory bears out in the advanced numbers.
Since the playoff expanded to its current structure of seven teams with the No. 1 seed getting a bye, there’ve been five No. 6 or No. 7 seeds who’ve won on wild-card weekend.
Here’s how those teams fared in EPA per play in non-garbage time scenarios (win probability between 10-90%) during their respective regular seasons:
Browns 2020
0.161 (6th)
0.044 (18th)
-11 (16th)
Rams 2020
-0.004 (22nd)
-0.098 (2nd)
+76 (10th)
49ers 2021
0.099 (8th)
0.018 (16th)
+62 (12th)
Giants 2022
0.022 (12th)
0.040 (24th)
-6 (16th)
Packers 20230.080 (6th)0.034 (26th)+33 (10th)AVERAGES0.0716 (10.8)0.0076 (17.2)+30.8 (12.8)Bengals 20240.137 (5th)0.077 (28th) +30 (13th)
The five-team sample indicates a high-quality offense far outweighs a stingy defensive in importance to spring an upset in the playoffs.
For perspective on those averages — the average offensive EPA per play (0.0716) aligns closely with the Buccaneers’ current mark of 0.084, ranking 10th in the league entering Week 17.
That defensive average is closest to the Rams, who with an EPA per play allowed of 0.006 rank 15th in the NFL.
And would you look at that — the average point differential is…
Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/joe-burrows-bengals-are-clearly-the-most-dangerous-potential-afc-wild-card-team-and-the-numbers-prove-it/
Author : Chris Trapasso
Publish date : 2024-12-27 18:30:00
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