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In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Panthers vs. Falcons
Highlighting the Falcons defense as a sneaky pass funnel worked out well in Week 17: Jayden Daniels dropped back a season-high 49 times and Washington was nearly 7 percent over its expected pass rate. It’s further confirmation that the Falcons have arrived as one of the NFL’s most reliable pass funnels. For that we can be grateful. We love our predictability, don’t we folks.
Bryce Young is set to drop back and throw a bunch of passes this week against an Atlanta defense that has seen the third highest pass rate over expected against them since Week 12. Falcons opponents since Week 12 have leaned toward the pass in neutral situations too, passing the ball 61 percent of the time when the game is within one score.
This should be a continuation of a trend for a Panthers offense that has been above its expected pass rate in five of their past seven games. Without Chuba Hubbard to lean on as the centerpiece of the offense, the Panthers last week resorted to a 76 percent drop back rate against Tampa, 2 percent over expected.
Adam Thielen is the obvious winner here. The grizzled veteran has garnered 28 percent of the team’s targets and 32 percent of the…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/funnel-defense-report-week-18-154032492.html
Author : NBC Sports
Publish date : 2025-01-02 15:40:00
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