2025 NFL Draft: Ranking the quarterback prospects based on a college football performance formula

Quarterback is the most important position on a football team. That’s why we see teams “overreach” for quarterbacks in the NFL Draft or “overpay” for them in free agency on an annual basis. It’s also why we see an unlimited amount of resources put into figuring out how to evaluate quarterback play, because if you get it right, you can set your franchise up for a decade of success.

If you get it wrong, it can set your franchise back a decade and likely lead to a change in who gets to flip the coin on the next QB.

Back in 2012, I decided to see if I could crack the code about evaluating a QB based on their college performance. The fact I’m here continuing this exercise in 2025 is proof that I’ve failed to do so. But, while I haven’t solved the puzzle, I have stumbled upon a formula that’s proven to be a useful tool in evaluating these players.

The formula doesn’t consider a quarterback’s rushing ability; it’s strictly based on their ability to throw the football. I break it down into three situations: performance against top-50 defenses, performance in third-and-long/fourth-down situations and performance in the red zone. These are the areas that more closely resemble the situations QBs will face at the NFL level.

What I’ve discovered is that while the formula cannot predict greatness, it has a knack for finding guys who will stick around in the NFL for a while. It’s also done a good job of figuring out who’s likely to bust.

Before we get into the details, what do you say we take a look at how the 2025 draft class fared?

1.

Shedeur Sanders

Colorado

3.93%

4,134 yards, 37 TD, 10 INT

2.

Seth Henigan

Memphis

2.71%

3,502 yards, 25 TD, 6 INT

3.

Cam Ward

Miami

2.47%

4,313 yards, 39 TD, 7 INT

4.

Kurtis Rourke

Indiana

1.51%

3,042 yards, 29 TD, 5 INT

5.

Max…

Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2025-nfl-draft-ranking-the-quarterback-prospects-based-on-a-college-football-performance-formula/

Author : Tom Fornelli

Publish date : 2025-04-22 13:29:00

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