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Kirby Smart on college football’s future
Kirby Smart urges leaders to prioritize the game’s future over personal or conference agendas in playoff talks.
The stat nerd has spoken.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly sets the industry standard for analytical preview content. His latest batch of metrics includes a look at SEC teams’ percentage chance of finishing the regular season 10-2 or better.
Why 10-2? Well, because of the theory that any SEC team that finishes 10-2 or better is a strong candidate to make the 12-team playoff.
A 9-3 record would give some SEC teams a chance at playoff qualification, but 10-2 is a golden ticket.
Connelly’s latest formula gives 10 SEC teams a 5% chance or better of finishing at least 10-2.
Strictly speaking, these percentages do not represent the chance that a team will make the playoff — only its chance of finishing 10-2 or better.
With that in mind, let’s review the percentage chance of SEC teams to finish 10-2 or better:
My take: Per Connelly’s metric, Alabama has the best chance of any SEC team to go 10-2 or better. My gut, which isn’t beholden to analytics, disagrees. The Crimson Tide’s schedule includes road games at Georgia and Auburn. My bigger reason to dial down this percentage, though, is the unproven starting quarterback.
Texas (61%)
My take: With a loaded roster led by quarterback Arch Manning, I’d be tempted to make Texas my preseason No. 1 team. Nevertheless, this percentage seems spot-on. A schedule that includes road land mines at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida creates the possibility of Texas losing three or more games.
Georgia (61%)
My take: This percentage seems a touch high. Why? Like Alabama, I’m not…
Source link : https://www.knoxnews.com/story/sports/college/university-of-tennessee/football/2025/06/19/college-football-playoff-odds-sec/84266897007/
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Publish date : 2025-06-19 10:04:00
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