Talk the Line: Early Super Bowl LVIII thoughts; Chiefs-49ers spread high

The Super Bowl is finally here!

Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week’s NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we’ve got you covered.

Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.

So, without further ado, let’s jump into their early Super Bowl analysis.

49ers (-1) vs. Chiefs

This line opened San Francisco -2.5, and it took about an hour of strong Kansas City support to move to -1 in Las Vegas. 

There will be ample conversation around Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid over the next two weeks, but there’s also a reason the 49ers are still favored. Maybe the Chiefs close -1 or -1.5, but this line will always be indicative of a coin flip. Barring a freak injury to either of the starting quarterbacks in practice, the number won’t sniff -3 either way.

We discussed this last week — do you trust your season-long numbers, which show that San Francisco is clearly the superior team? Or do you toss those out and say, “It’s playoff Mahomes, go against him at your own peril?” By the way, have you seen Mahomes’ straight up and against the spread numbers as an underdog? 

The numbers guys don’t want to admit it, but you kind of have to toss out those season-long numbers. 

The Chiefs led the NFL in drops this season, yet, they don’t have one through three playoff games! 

Patrick Mahomes had the worst statistical season of his career, yet, he’s got four TDs against zero turnovers in three playoff games. 

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy was in the top five in every passing category this season, but he has not been very good in two playoff games. That said, he has been outstanding in the clutch. 

I don’t want to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid here, but I do think San Francisco will win the game. 

Props will be the way to go — but maybe teasing…

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Publish date : 2024-01-29 20:01:50

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