NFL Power Rankings: 10 most important playoff lessons, including when to go for it on 4th down

For 30 teams, the offseason has started. For many of those teams, the offseason started weeks ago.

Every team should be looking for clues on how to build Super Bowl teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. Every postseason we get some lessons on where the league is heading and other trends we’ll see repeat themselves. This postseason brought plenty of lessons, some learned the hard way from teams sitting at home.

Here are the top 10 lessons we can take from the first three rounds of the postseason:

10. Fourth-down decisions aren’t easy

Who knew Dan Campbell would set off a turf war? Campbell decided to bypass two field-goal attempts to go for it on fourth down, like he did all season, and the two incompletions set off a passionate debate about analytics. Like most things in life, there is nuance. It’s not wrong for coaches to follow the numbers and go for it more often than they did even 10 years ago. There’s also something to be said about taking into account factors that are difficult to quantify, like how a turnover on downs in a 14-point game could shift momentum (if you believe in such things) to the home team in a playoff game. Should Campbell have kicked a field goal and gone up 17 points in the third quarter? Probably, and especially in hindsight. But those who believe in analytics will argue that the decision was right, but the result wasn’t good. It’s also worth noting that the win probability differences in these fourth-down decisions is often just a percentage point or two. Yes those small edges add up, but it’s hard to argue there are absolutes in many of the cases.

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell speaks at a news conference after the NFC championship game. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

Either way, the debate will rage on all offseason. And next season, coaches will worry what the backlash will be if they trust their instincts.

9. Playoff experience matters

The Chiefs are not fazed by much. There was a lot made of Patrick Mahomes having…

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Publish date : 2024-01-30 15:41:54

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