Chiefs could throw wrench into AFC playoff race with Week 18 win over Broncos: Why an upset could be brewing

One of the biggest games of Week 18 will be taking place in Denver, where the Broncos will be hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that means everything for one team and nothing for the other.

If the Broncos win, they’ll clinch their first playoff spot since 2015, which would end the NFL’s second-longest active postseason drought. On the other hand, if the Broncos lose, that would open the door for the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals to sneak in and steal the final playoff spot in the AFC. 

On the Chiefs’ end, they’ve already clinched the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, so they have nothing to play for. 

With the Chiefs planning to rest most of their starters this week, the Broncos might feel like a lock in this game, but anyone who has watched the NFL long enough knows there’s no such thing as a lock in this league. 

Although the Chiefs are a 9.5-point underdog to Denver, they’ve been in this situation before under Andy Reid and they’ve actually done quite well. The Chiefs have benched their starters in the final week of the season a total of four times since Reid became coach in 2013 and they’ve gone 2-2 in those games (and 3-1 against the spread). 

Let’s take a look at the four games when Kansas City rested its starters: 

2013: Chargers 27-24 in OT over Chiefs (Chiefs were 14.5-point underdogs)
2017: Chiefs 27-24 over Broncos (Chiefs were 3-point underdogs)
2020: Chargers 38-21 over Chiefs (Chiefs were 7-point underdogs)
2023: Chiefs 13-12 over Chargers (Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs)

The 2013 game is the one that’s the most similar to what we’ll see this week: The Chargers needed a win to make the playoffs and the Chiefs had nothing to play for. The Chargers were favored by 14.5 points, which still stands as the largest point spread the Chiefs have faced as an underdog in Reid’s 12 seasons with the team.  

Although the Chiefs had every reason to lose that…

Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chiefs-could-throw-wrench-into-afc-playoff-race-with-week-18-win-over-broncos-why-an-upset-could-be-brewing/

Author : John Breech

Publish date : 2025-01-02 17:47:00

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