College Football Playoff: Notre Dame vs. Penn State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QB matchup, and trends

The Nittany Lions (13-2) cruised through the first half of their B10 schedule with their closest victory being a dramatic Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC where PSU still posted an 86%-win expectancy despite the close score. Each of their other 10 regular season wins carried near perfect 94%+ win expectancies, with PSU exhibiting a thorough mastery of their B10 regular season schedule. Penn State was unable to corral Oregon’s offense in the Big Ten Championship though, allowing 496 total yards while dropping a 45-37 decision to the then undefeated Ducks.

The Nittany Lions eviscerated SMU in the first round of the CFP Playoff, picking off QB Kevin Jennings three times while holding the Mustangs to 58 rushing yards on 36 carries (1.6 YPC) enroute to a commanding 38-10 victory. It was much of the same against Boise State last round, with PSU smothering Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty and company to the tune of 108 yards on 40 carries for a comfortable 31-14 win.

OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 2nd in marginal efficiency. Their main offensive drawback is PSU’s relative lack of big play ability, ranking 92nd in yards per successful play and 59th in explosiveness.

The Nittany Lions Defense has been a wrecking crew once again, ranking 7th in SP+ with a secondary that allows just 5.2 yards per dropback (14th in FBS). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft Edge Abdul Carter got dinged up last game but should play and leads a pass rush that ranks 9th overall with a 42.3% pressure rate and 25th in sacks per dropback (7.8%).

Notre Dame (12-1) didn’t let a disappointing Week 2 loss to 7-5 MAC program Northern Illinois derail their season, winning 10 straight games to punch their ticket to the CFP Playoff.

The main critique of the Irish stems from their soft 63rd ranked…


Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football-playoff-notre-dame-214105948.html

Author : NBC Sports

Publish date : 2025-01-05 21:41:00

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