Is Memphis football a legitimate contender for the College Football Playoff in 2025? At least one metric thinks so.
ESPN released its preseason (Football Power Index) FPI forecast for the 2025 season on June 3, and Memphis is listed as the team with the fourth-best chance to make the College Football Playoff out of the Group of Five. The Tigers (6.5 percent) are behind Boise State (25.2 percent), Tulane (24.3 percent) and UNLV (21.3 percent). Memphis’ win total is projected at 7.9.
The Tigers went into last season as a top contender for the playoff because of a strong senior class that included Seth Henigan and Roc Taylor, but the Tigers lost almost all their production from last season’s 11-2 team and will have new faces almost everywhere in 2025. That makes it much harder to set expectations for this season, but FPI still has Memphis in the thick of the playoff race.
Boise State claimed the Group of Five’s spot in the playoff in 2024. Though the Broncos lost superstar running back Ashton Jeanty to the NFL, they’ll bring back plenty of important pieces from that team and are near-universal favorites to be the best team in the Group of Five. UNLV has recruited well in Dan Mullen’s first year at the helm of that program and could make noise this season. Tulane has been at or near the top of the AAC for the past few seasons.
Where Memphis ranks in FPI numbers
Memphis is ranked No. 65 in FPI. That’s slightly below No. 58, where the Tigers finished the 2024 season. FBI gives Memphis a 87.7 percent chance to make a bowl game and a 14.9 percent chance to win the AAC. That’s second in the conference behind Tulane, which FPI gives a 45.4 percent chance to win the conference.
While Army and Navy both had very successful 2024 seasons (Army won the AAC title), FPI is not high on their chances to repeat that performance in 2025….
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Publish date : 2025-06-03 21:56:00
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