How high is Auburn’s national championship odds heading into the season?
After two years of solid recruiting in both the high school ranks and in the transfer portal, it appears that the Auburn Tigers are set up for a breakout season in year three under Hugh Freeze.
How much will the Tigers improve in 2025? ESPN takes a crack at projecting the Tigers’ season using their Football Power Index.
ESPN’s early-season outlook shows updated playoff odds, projected wins, and projected output from both offense and defense. The Auburn Tigers begin the season with a 14.8 rating in the FPI, which measures a team’s true strength on a net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field. Their 14.8 score places them at No. 14 in the category dominated by the SEC. The Texas Longhorns have the highest FPI score at 28.5, nearly two full points more than No. 2 Georgia (26.6).
The Tigers also rank in the top 25 in College Football Playoff odds according to the FPI. Their 21.4% chance ranks No. 18 in the country and is a significant improvement over its 2024 projection, which was 13.5%. Auburn has a 2.5% chance to make the national title game and a 1.1% chance to win its first national title since 2010.
As far as projected win totals go, Auburn’s line is set at 7.5, the same as the 2024 projection. The Tigers are starving for more wins in 2025, as they have failed to win more than eight games since 2019 and have won six or fewer games every season since. The 7.5 line gives the Tigers a chance to exceed expectations and get back to their traditional winning ways.
Auburn football’s journey to the College Football Playoff begins Friday, Aug. 29, at Baylor. The game will get the primetime spot of 7 p.m. CT on FOX.
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Publish date : 2025-06-04 13:27:00
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