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Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
There are two weeks left in the regular season, and we’re getting down to crunch time for plenty of NFL teams.
Some need to win for seeding, some need to win to get in, and others need to win, plus hope for miracles.
All that makes these games fun to handicap.
RELATED: Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 17 odds
Let’s dive into my best bets for this weekend.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
I’m going with the underthink express on this one.
Tampa Bay is playing good football, as it looks to wrap up the NFC South. The Bucs have won four in a row, including wins over the Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars.
They are 12th in total DVOA, led by their defense, which is ranked 13th. Baker Mayfield is playing some of his best football and just appears locked in.
The Saints are the most middling team in the NFL. They are 7-8 with a beat-up quarterback and lots of wins against bad teams.
New Orleans has won two games in the last six, and those were against the Giants and Panthers. The Saints were less than competitive in those four losses.
Also, when you have a chance to fade Derek Carr playing on the road against a good defense, you must take that opportunity.
PICK: Buccaneers (-3) to win by more than 3 points
DeVonta Smith on Eagles: ‘We’re not playing good football right now’
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Philadelphia’s offense finally had a get-right game against an ineffective Giants defense, and I’m wagering on the Eagles to continue scoring points against Arizona.
The Eagles average 26.1 points per game, including point totals of 19, 13 and 17 during their three-game losing streak earlier this month.
They were back above 30 against the Giants (33) on Christmas and the Cardinals are 32nd in defensive DVOA. Arizona allows 26.9 points per game, 31st in…
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Publish date : 2023-12-27 16:08:44
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